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Hazel Quinn: My dear friend was killed on his motorcycle last year here in the UK. he was an experiencd rider but had no chance against a vandriver who was drunk. We#'re campaigning here for stiffer sentences.
Rob Wilkins: Doc: Great stuff! Thanks to you and everybody else who's looking out for us in Raleigh! Rob
DoyleSoft: Cool blog!
Sneads Ferry: If the NTSB treated aviation safety the way they seem to feel about motocyclists, their remedy for airplane crashes would be to mandate a helmet for every passenger.They seem to get that accident prevention is key for planes and trains...why not bikes?
Arnold Key: Keep up the good work
Voodoo: Doc Keep up the fight Brother... We have periodically copied your blog to ours and will continue to do so on the important stuff to keep our members fully up to speed
Hickory Doc: One of our chapter members services Allran's vehicles. Usually he fusses at him. Next week it will be praise and a CBA membership form.
eric: Thanks Doc, the email addy's made it easy.
mark infield: I appreciate the information and the comma seperated e-mail group makes it VERY convenient to cont the proper people to express my views. Thanks
Nancy Norris: Doc Ski, We certainly appreciate all your hard work and efforts in Raleigh.You are greatly appreciated.
sparkle: Today I am visiting the neighborhood and dropping off warm wishes to say have an awesome moment and week ahead and to remember you are special and important person to this world
Cindy Hodge: I have contacted my house rep, Li nda Coleman, once again and I will be at the legislature on Monday. Thank you Ski... big love,Fre
Vicki Cole: Keep up the good work Doc! Your efforts are appreciated by many! FREEDOM FIGHTERS its time to UNITE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Vinny Neuman: Great work Doc - We appreciate your efforts. Vin
Tom Umberger: Good work Doc, Let's keep the fire burning.
shaggy: This CAN'T happen! I hope everyone gets the message and contacts these legislators. When will this go (or not go) through???
Jim Everhart: Very INFORMATIVE! Thanks Doc!
Tar River Basin: nice blog Doc keep it upVoodoo

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Tuesday, September 4th 2007

12:51 PM

Guest Editorial - Hawaii Speaks Out

Recently, Warren Woodward, Chair, State Legislative Committee, of the Street Bikers United Hawaii, posted an article to an ABATE discussion forum regarding a June 2006 study from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.  I was forwarded a copy of this article via e-mail, and am reproducing it on this site for your consideration.  .

In summary, according to Woodward, the NHTSA analysis reported that motorcycle-related deaths have increased sharply from 1997 to 2005, by a rate of 89%.  However, Woodward did some research of his own, using the same NHTSA data, and found that the agency had cherry-picked its data for maximum drama (a statistical maneuver I frequently refer to as data-mining).  If NHTSA had reported the results from further back in years, they would have found that motorcycle-related fatalities have actually decreased since 1980 totals.

Here's Woodward's article..

------------------------------------

Recent Trends in Fatal Motorcycle Crashes: An Update (http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd-30/NCSA/Rpts/2006/810606.pdf) is 72 pages of charts and analysis from The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) based on the 10 years from 1995 to 2004. It should have been called Fabricating Trends in Fatal Motorcycle Crashes. Here's why:

Cherry Picking

NHTSA is cherry picking data. In the opening summary, motorcycle fatalities are presented as a crisis: "Since 1997 motorcycle rider fatalities have increased 89%." Wow, sounds bad, but over the years I have received many solicitations from investment newsletters. As a result I've learned how easy it is to pick certain time frames to make profits look good. It's called cherry picking and it's what NHTSA is doing here. Go back 15 years, since 1990, and fatalities have only increased 24%. If you go back 25 years, from 1980 to 2004, the fatalities actually decrease 22%. From the graph below of yearly rider fatalities you can see what I means


So instead of starting out the report with a horrifying 89% increase in fatalities, NHTSA could have begun by saying that since 1980 motorcycle fatalities have dropped 22%. But then there's no crisis, and we wouldn't need to be saved, or at least not by them.

Helmets

A chart on page 36 of the report shows that the helmet use rate in fatal crashes was basically unchanged over the 10 years, 1995 to 2004. If helmets "save lives", shouldn't more of the dead be helmetless, especially as fatalities rose 89%? Yet helmeted riders consistently comprise the dead majority at around 54% of fatalities every year. Of course that doesn't stop NHTSA from calling for mandatory helmet laws.

Ultimately, the helmet numbers are useless because they do not reflect anything except how many were wearing and how many were not at time of death. NHTSA might as well have a chart showing how many riders were or were not wearing wristwatches. How can anyone tell if a helmet would have helped or not? Just because someone died without a helmet does not mean they would have lived with a helmet. And how many of the helmeted dead had snapped necks or basal skull fracture? NHTSA doesn't say.

A similar trick was played here in Hawaii just recently by the state Department of Transportation. They emphasized that two thirds of the riders who died in Hawaii last year were not wearing helmets. Of course the implication is that had they been wearing helmets they would not be dead. But we don't know that. The fact is that helmets have not changed the death to accident ratio in any state where they have been mandated (see Helmet Law Facts at
www.sbumaui.org ).

I think fatalities went up over the 10 years for the same reason they went down over the 25 years. And if you find that reason be sure and tell me. My point is there is no one reason. All I know is the more experience and training a rider has the better, but even that won't save you when you're time is up.

Vehicle Miles Traveled

Much of the report is simply invalid since it is based on NHTSA's fictitious Vehicle Miles Traveled. In NHTSA's National Agenda for Motorcycle Safety they actually admit: "Unfortunately, vehicle miles of travel (VMT) data for motorcycles are not reported directly and must be estimated." Fabricated would be a more accurate word than estimated ( see addendum 2, Helmet Law Facts, at
www.sbumaui.org ). When it comes to VMT, NHTSA is winging it.

Speed & Alcohol

According to NHTSA, over the 10 years, speed related deaths decreased 6% and alcohol related deaths decreased 8%. That's great, but I always question the accuracy of those numbers. For example, we had a rider here on Maui cross the double yellow line while going up Haleakala. Cars coming down the other way are usually doing at least 60. The Maui News said the accident may have been speed related. Sorry, from where I sit it was intelligence related (and he was wearing a helmet).

Engine Displacement

One of the more troubling aspects of the report is NHTSA's fixation on engine displacement. There are 23 different charts, almost 1/3 of the report's total charts, concerning engine displacement and fatalities--engine displacement and speed, engine displacement and type of crash, engine displacement and type of road, there's even one that compares engine displacement with the days people died!

We all know that motorcycle engine displacement has increased over the years and that a 750, for example, is no longer a "big bike". Somehow though, a popular myth is being created, and NHTSA is fueling it, that increased displacement = increased fatality, especially amongst inexperienced riders. Having got into plenty of accidents when I was uneducated and inexperienced on my first bike which displaced 175cc, I have never bought into this myth.

There is so much more to a motorcycle than displacement. Power to weight ratio has a lot more to do with speed. There are plenty of 600cc rockets that can smoke a bagger with more than twice that displacement. Weight, seat height, rider position, center of gravity, tires, braking capability, and rider experience all play a role in how well a machine can be handled. Yet NHTSA has not figured out how to quantify those so they are not part of the mix. And NHTSA will never be able to quantify karma.

Looking long term, I see NHTSA's displacement fixation leading to a push for graduated licensing whereby riders would be prohibited from owning larger displacement bikes until they passed certain exams over a certain number of years. Outrageous? It's already happening in Europe. NHTSA is laying the groundwork now--creating the problem by cherry picking the displacement data--and the solution will be a graduated license system. I'd bet on it.

Blame the Rider

The undercurrent running throughout NHTSA's report is blame the rider. We are either too young, too old, too fast, too drunk, or the motor's too big. Certainly riders do die because of one or a combination of those. However, there are 75 charts in this 72 page report and not one showing rider fatalities caused by the Right Of Way violations of other road users.

NHTSA is as blind as a Right Of Way violator. What's worse is that, as taxpayers, we pay their undeserved salaries.

 

·                       This data mining is the typical pseudo-science that has come out of the NHTSA statisticians for years.  The misleading conclusions derived from this unethical use of statistical sciences have been used frequently to convince elected officials that there is a national crisis in motorcycle safety.

·                       The recent passage of “Sutton’s Abomination - HB 563”, requiring the mandatory use of FMVSS 218 helmets was pushed through the NC legislature by bureaucrats using these very same methods of mis-information.

·                       Consider contacting your legislators and;

1.  Advise them that you do not support  bureaucrats and special interest groups forming coalitions (i.e., NHTSA, The National Governor’s Highway Safety Association, & The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety) that gang up on citizens, deliberately mislead legislators, and infringe on your freedoms.  Tell them you don't want your tax dollars spent to support conspiracies against freedom.

2.  Ask your elected officials why NHTSA has granted permission for state highway safety agencies to transfer "motorcycle-safety-specific" funds provided by the SAFETEA-LU legislation (advocated for by MROs) to other (non-motorcycle) highway projects.

·                       Get involved in local political party activities.  Become a delegate.  Run for local office.

·                       Attend Election campaign rallies/fundraisers, and ask the candidates the tough questions.

  It’s your lifestyle.  It's your choice.  It’s your decision.

 Keep the Faith!

doc ski

 

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